CHONG Tai Leung 1

Prof. CHONG Tai Leung, Terence
Associate Professor
Tel: (852) 3943-8193
Office Location: Room 930, Esther Lee Building
Home Page:  

MA, Ph.D. (Rochester)

Research Interest

Econometric Theory
Time Series Analysis
Technical Analysis of Financial Data


Prof Terence Chong is Associate Head of New Asia College, Executive Director of Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics, Finance, and Co-Director of Global Economics and Finance Program and associate professor of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. He served as Siyuan Chair Professor of Nanjing University in China from 2013 to 2016. Prof Chong received his Bachelor degree in Economics from The Chinese University of Hong Kong in 1991, and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Rochester in 1995. His main research area is financial econometrics. He has published over 1000 articles in international journals and newspapers covering a wide spectrum of topics in Econometrics, Finance, Mathematics, Psychology, Education and the Chinese Economy. Prof. Chong ranks top 37th worldwide in theoretical econometrics,top 1% in terms of number of distinct works and number of journal pages, and top 5% economists worldwide (RePEc). His papers are published in reputable international journals, including Journal of Econometrics, Econometric Theory, Econometric Review, Econometrics Journal, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Banking and Finance, Financial Management, Journal of Futures Markets, Quantitative Finance, Financial Review, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Journal of Behavioral Finance, Southern Economic Journal, Economics Letters, Journal of Economic Psychology, Review of Income and Wealth, Small Business Economics, and China Economic Review. Prof. Chong is dedicated to community service. He provides training to senior government officials of China and Hong Kong. He was also a project consultant to World Bank and an advisor to the World Green Organisation of the United Nations, a Part-time member of the Central Policy Unit and a member of Standard Working Hours Committee, Transport Advisory Committee, Land and Development Advisory Committee, Standing Committee on Disciplined Services Salaries and Conditions of Service, Vetting Committee of the SME Development Fund and the Dedicated Fund on Branding, Upgrading and Domestic Sales of the HKSAR Government and a member of the Board of Governors of International College Hong Kong (Hong Lok Yuen). He is currently a member of the Commission on Poverty of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region and a member of the Community Care Fund (CCF) Task Force under the Commission, a member of Small and Medium Enterprises Committee, and a panel member of the Telecommunications (Competition Provisions) Appeal Board of the HKSAR Government. He is also a member of the Economic Policy Committee of Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce and Hong Kong Jockey Club, the associate editor of Singapore Economic Review and Economics Bulletin, and the director of the Financial Markets Program, Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies. Professor Chong was awarded the Medal of Honour by the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region in 2022 in recognition of his dedicated and valuable contributions to the development of trade and industry in Hong Kong. Prof. Chong also shares his views on the global economy and self-development on his YouTube Channel: “Prof Terence Chong, The Economist”.

莊太量教授現為香港中文大學新亞書院副院長,劉佐德全球經濟及金融研究所常務所長,經濟學系副教授及環球經濟與金融跨學科主修課程聯席主任,2013-2016年兼任南京大學思源講座教授。莊教授1991年獲香港中文大學經濟學學士,1995年獲美國羅徹斯特大學 (University of Rochester) 經濟學博士,其專業研究範疇為計量財務學。莊教授為全球首百分之五經濟學家 (RePEc), 傑出作品量為全球首百分之一,2000-2005年於全球理論計量經濟學排名37。 莊教授著有《人生煉金術》一書及1000餘篇論文發表於國際學術期刊以及中港報章。莊教授熱心服務社會,經常接受電子傳媒及報章訪問,及定期為國內及香港特區政府培訓官員,並出任多項公職,曾任世界銀行及聯合國世界綠色組織項目顧問,香港特別行政區政府中央政策組非全職顧問,標凖工時委員會委員,交通諮詢委員會委員,土地及建設諮詢委員會委員,紀律人員薪俸及服務條件常務委員會, 中小企業發展支援基金及發展品牌、升級轉型及拓展內銷市場的專項基金評審委員會委員,及康樂園國際學校校董,現為香港特別行政區政府扶貧委員會及關愛基金專責小組委員,中小型企業委員會委員,電訊(競爭條文)上訴委員會成員,香港總商會經濟政策委員會委員,香港學術及職業資歷評審局專家小組委員,香港賽馬會會員,亞太研究所金融市場研究計劃主任,及多份國際期刊的編輯委員。莊教授2022年獲香港特別行政區政府頒授榮譽勳章(MH), 以表揚其對社會和在推動香港貿易和工業發展的貢獻。莊教授經常和大眾在他的YouTube頻道“莊教授經濟人生”分享他對全球經濟和個人發展的看法。


Selected Journal Publications

On Econometrics

[1] "Partial Parameter Consistency in a Misspecified Structural Change Model," Economics Letters, 49, October 1995, pp. 351-357.

[2] "Estimating the Fractionally Integrated Process in the Presence of Measurement Errors" (with C.S. Lui), Economics Letters, 63, June 1999, pp. 285-294.

[3] "Estimating the Differencing Parameter via the Partial Autocorrelation Function," Journal of Econometrics, 97, August 2000, pp. 365-381.

[4] "Structural Change in AR(1) Models," Econometric Theory, 17, No. 1, February 2001, pp. 87-155.

[5] "Estimating the Locations and Number of Change Points by the Sample-Splitting Method," Statistical Papers, 42, No. 1, 2001, pp. 53-79

[6] "Time Series Properties of the Aggregated AR(2) Processes," (with K.T. Wong), Economics Letters, 73, December 2001, pp. 325-332.

[7] "Generic Consistency of the Break-Point Estimator under Specification Errors," Econometrics Journal, 6, June 2003, pp. 167-192.

[8] "The Polynomial Aggregated AR(1) Model," Econometrics Journal, 9, March 2006, pp. 98-122.

[9] "A Class Test for Fractional Integration," (with Melvin Hinich), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 11, 2007, No. 2, Article 5.

[10] "Generic Consistency of the Break-Point Estimator under Specification Errors in a Multiple-Break Model," (with Jushan Bai, Haiqiang Chen and Xin Wang), Econometrics Journal, 11, July 2008, pp. 287-307.

[11] "Time Series Test of Nonlinear Convergence and Transitional Dynamics," (with Melvin Hinich, K.P. Lim and Venus Liew), Economics Letters, 100, September 2008, pp. 337-339.

[12] "An Omnibus Test for Time Series Model I(d)," (with Melvin Hinich), Communications in Statistics, Simulation and Computation, 38(1) January 2009, pp. 140-153.

[13] "The Theory and Applications of TAR Model with two Threshold Variables " (with Jushan Bai and Haiqiang Chen), Econometric Review, 31(2), 2012, pp. 142-170.

[14] "Asymptotic Inferences for an AR(1) Model with a Change Point: Stationary and Nearly Non-stationary Cases," (with Tianxiao Pang and Danna Zhang), Journal of Time Series Analysis, 35, 2014, pp. 133-150.

[15] "Dirichlet Process Multiple Change-point Model" (with Stanley Ko and Pulak Ghosh), Bayesian Analysis, 10(2), 2015, pp.275-296.

[16] "Structural Change in Nonstationary Integrated AR(1) Models" (with Tianxiao Pang, Yanling Liang and Danna Zhang), Econometric Theory, 34(5), October 2018 , pp. 985-1017.

[17] "Estimation and Inference of Threshold Regression Models with Measurement Errors,"(with Haiqiang Chen, Isabel Yan and Tsz Nga Wong), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 22(2), 2018, Article 1.

[18] "Frequentist Model Averaging for Threshold Models" (with Yan Gao, Xinyu Zhang, Shouyang Wang and Guohua Zou), Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, forthcomng.

[19] "Non-Identication of Structural Change in Non-Stationary AR(1) Models" (with with Tianxiao Pang and Danna Zhang), Communications in Statistics, Theory and Method, forthcoming.

[20] "Estimating Multiple Breaks in Nonstationary Autoregressive Model" (with Tianxiao Pang and Lingjie Du), Journal of Econometrics, 221(1), March 2021, pp. 277-311.


On Finance

[21] "Threshold Effect of Scale and Skill in Active Mutual Fund Management" (with Nayoung and Chan-Ip Sio), North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, January 2020.

[22] "Factor Pricing of Cryptocurrencies" (with Qiyu Wang and Xin Wu, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, forthcoming.

[23] "The Effects of Trading Suspensions in China" (with Qing He, Jingyun Gan and Shuwan Wang), North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 50, November 2019.

[24] "Institutional Ownership and Private Equity Placements: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms" (with Qing He, Dongxu Li and Liping Lu), International Review of Finance, 19(2), 2019, pp. 315-346.

[25] "Factor Pricing in Commodity Futures and the Role of Liquidity" (with Sunny Tsui and Wing Chan), Quantitative Finance, 17(11), 2017, pp. 1745-1757.

[26] "Predictive Models for Disaggregate Stock Market Volatility" (with Shiyu Lin), Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 31(3), August 2017, pp. 261-288.

[27] "What Explains Herd Behavior in the Chinese Stock Market?" (with X. Liu and C. Zhu), Journal of Behavioral Finance, 18(4), 2017, pp. 448-456.

[28] "The Stock-Bond Comovements and Cross-Market Trading" (with Huanhuan Zheng, Mengling Li and Yang Zhang), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 73, December 2016, pp. 417-438.

[29] "Executive Stock Option Pricing in China under Stochastic Volatility," (with Yue Ding and Yong Li), Journal of Futures Markets, 35(10), 2015, pp. 953-960.

[30] "A Principal Component Approach to Measuring Investor Sentiment in China" (with Yingni She and Haiqiang Chen), Quantitative Finance, 14(4), pp. 573-579.

[31] "Does Banking Competition Alleviate or Worsen Credit Constraints Faced by Small and Medium Enterprises? Evidence from China" (with Steven Ongena and Liping Lu), Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(9), September 2013, pp. 3412-3424.

[32] "Are Chinese Stock Market Cycles Duration Independent?" (with Zimu Li and Haiqiang Chen), Financial Review, 46, 2011, pp. 149-162.

[33] "A Competing Risks Analysis of Corporate Survival" (with Qing He, Li Li and Jun Zhang), Financial Management, Winter 2010, pp. 1697-1718.

[34] "Are Nonlinear Trading Rules Profitable in the U.S. Stock Market?" (with Tau-Hing Lam), Quantitative Finance, 10(9), November 2010 , pp. 1067-1076.

[35] "A Principal-Factor Approach to Measuring Investor Sentiment" (with Xin Duan and Haiqiang Chen), Quantitative Finance, 10(4), April, 2010, pp. 339-347. (Lead article)

[36] "Do Momentum-based Strategies Work in Emerging Currency Markets?" (with Hugo Ip), Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 17, September 2009, pp. 479-493.

[37] "Determining the Contribution to Price Discovery for Chinese Cross-listed Stocks" (with Qian Su), Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 15, April 2007, pp. 140-153.


On Applied Econometrics

[38] "The Inadequacy of Linear Autoregressive model for Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence from Asian Economies," (with K.P. Lim and Venus Liew), Applied Economics, 5, August 2003, pp. 1387-1392.

[39] "Are Asian Real Exchange Rates Stationary?" (with Venus Liew and A.Z. Baharumshah), Economics Letters, 83, June 2004, pp. 313-316.

[40] "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Foreign Reserves and Currency Crises,"(with Melvin Hinich and Qing He), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12, 2008, No. 4, Article 2.

[41] "The Empirical Quest for Pi," Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 56, November, 2008, pp. 2772-2778.

[42] "What Accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?"(with Qing He and Kang Shi), China Economic Review, 20, December 2009, pp. 650–661.

[43] "An Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Stock Market Cycle," (with Melvin Hinich, Zimu Li and Haiqiang Chen), Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(8), 2010, pp. 1407-1416.

[44] "The Value of Superstitions" (with Travis Ng and Xin Du), Journal of Economic Psychology, 31, June 2010, pp. 291-309.

[45] "Is the Chinese Stock Market Really Inefficient?"(with Tau-Hing Lam and Isabel Yan), China Economic Review, 23(1), March 2012, 122-137.

[46] "Long-Range Dependence in the International Diamond Market," (with Michael Lu and Wing H. Chan) Economics Letters, 116(3), September 2012, pp. 401-403.

[47] "What Determines the Price of a Racing Horse?" (with Travis Ng, Man Tat Siu and Ben Everard), Applied Economics, 45(3), January 2013 , pp. 369-382.

[48] "Shipping the Good Horses Out" (with Travis Ng and Jean Eid), Southern Economic Journal, 80(2), October 2013, pp. 540-561.

[49] "Factor-Augmented VAR Analysis of the Monetary Policy in China" (with Pak Ho Leung and Qing He), China Economic Review, 25, June 2013, pp. 88-104.

[50] "The Nexus between Labour Wages and Property Rents in the Greater China Area" (with C. W. Shui and V. Wong), China Economic Review, 30, September 2014, pp. 180–191.

[51] "Nonlinear Dependence between Stock and Real Estate Markets in China" (with Jack Ding and S.Y. Park), Economics Letters, 124(3), September 2014, pp. 526-529.

[52] "The Olympic Games and the Improvement of Economic Well Being" (with Pik Hung Hui), Applied Research in Quality of Life, 8(1), March 2013, pp. 1-14.

[53] "Can Poverty be Alleviated in China?" (with Cong Qin), Review of Income and Wealth, 64(1), March 2018, pp. 192-212.

[54] "Does Monetary Policy Matter For Trade?" (with Kin Ming Wong), International Economics, 147, October 2016, pp. 107–125.

[55] "Do Speculative Bubbles Migrate in the Chinese Stock Market?" (with Q. He, Z. Qian and Z. Fei), Empirical Economics, 56(2), February 2019, pp. 735-754.

[56] "Regional Differences in Self-Employment in China" (with Bei Luo), Small Business Economics, 53(3), October 2019, pp 813–837.

[57] "A New Recognition Algorithm for "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns" (with Ka Ho Poon), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 21(5), 2017, Article 3.

[58] "Housing Prices and Business Cycle in China: A DSGE Analysis" (with Qing He, Fangge Liu and Zongxin Qian), International Review of Economics and Finance, 52, November 2017, pp. 246-256.

[59] "Monetary Policy Regimes and Growth Revisited: Evidence from A De Facto Classification" (with Kin Ming Wong), Oxford Economic Papers, 71(4), October 2019, pp. 908–929.

[60] "Co-integrated or not? After the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connection Schemes" (with Qiyu Wang), Economics Letters, 163, February 2018, pp. 167-171.

[61] "The Nexus between Visitor Arrivals and Residential Property Rents in Hong Kong" (with Alex Wing-Ho Yiu), Pacific Economic Review, 24(3), August 2019, pp. 464-478.

[62] "Forecasting Currency Crises with Threshold Models" (with Isabel Yan), International Economics, 156, December 2018, pp. 156-174.

[63] "Price Rigidity in China: Empirical Results at Home and Abroad" (with Zhang Wu), China Economic Review, 55, June 2019, pp. 218-235.

[64] "Does the Macroeconomy Matter to Market Volatility? Evidence from US Industries" (with Zhang Wu), Empirical Economics, 61(6), 2021, pp. 2931-2962.

[65] "Market Reaction to iPhone Rumors" (with Zhang Wu and Yuchen Liu, Algorithmic Finance, 9(1-2), 2021, pp. 1-23.

[66] "Will Stock Rise on Valentine’s Day?" (with Siqi Hou), Review of Behavioral Finance, forthcoming.

Awards and Honours

  • 國家自然科學基金(專案號:71673312),項目名稱:過度負債、金融壓力與實體經濟下滑:理論、證據與對策研究,費用:48.00萬元,項目起止年月:201701月至 2020 12 (莊太量、彭方平)
  • HK$ 134,550. "Chow-Lin Disaggregation in the Presence of Structural Breaks," funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (RGC) 2011/12
  • HK$387,817. "Estimating of and Testing for a Break in the Differencing Parameter," funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (RGC) 2000/01
  • HK$220,000. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of ARFIMA Processes against the Alternative of Non-ARFIMA Processes," funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (RGC) 1998/99
  • HK$210,790. "Generic Consistency of the Break-Point Estimator under Specification Errors," funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (RGC) 1997/98
  • Ranked top 37th worldwide by theoretical econometrics publication in Table 15a of Baltagi B.H. (2007) "Worldwide Econometrics Rankings: (1989-2005)", Econometric Theory 23(5), pp 952-1012.
  • Ranked top 55th worldwide by all econometrics publication in Table 16a of Baltagi B.H. (2007) "Worldwide Econometrics
  • Rankings: (1989-2005)", Econometric Theory 23(5), pp 952-1012.
  • Ranked top 6% worldwide and top 3% authors in Asia according to Average Rank Score by RePEc (Research Papers in Economics).
  • Ranked top 5% worldwide by RePEc (Research Papers in Economics).